I'm Shutting IT Down....... | TruckMount Forums #1 Carpet Cleaning Forums

I'm Shutting IT Down.......

Spazznout

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@rob allen


It's simple folks.


Simply put, it's this -- R0 is likely around 3.0 We're intentionally undersampling, plus test error, so the original estimates around 3.0 look good. Outside edge on that is likely 2.5 +/- 0.1

Social distancing and lockdowns have only reduced it by approximately 0.5 and even with the extremely aggressive "shelter in place" orders we're only getting another tenth -- that is, 0.6. That's within the margin of error, so the difference between "shelter in place" and "slam closed all restaurants, bars, groups larger than 50, 10, 2 or whatever" is only 0.1 which is a statistical ZERO.

A reminder: It has to go below 1.0 to stop the spread. It has to go below 1.3 or thereabouts to spread no more nastily than the seasonal flu.

Where's the rest coming from?

We've cut social interaction by 90%+ for nearly everyone in the country.

But we've increased the concentration of people with it (as the cases have gone up) in hospitals and that has to be where the spread into and through the community is coming from.

We know that's happening in nursing homes and such but it's happening in every hospital too and has been since this started.

THE PROTOCOL HAS TO CHANGE IN HOSPITALS EVERYWHERE AND ANYWHERE IN THE US RIGHT NOW TO THIS:

WASH YOUR ****ING HANDS.

WASH THEM BEFORE AND AFTER EACH CONTACT WITH ANY SURFACE OR PERSON.

WITHOUT EXCEPTION, EVERY TIME, PERIOD.

NOT HAND SANITIZER, SOAP AND WATER.

EVERY TIME.

BEFORE AND AFTER.

ENFORCE THIS PROTOCOL LIKE DAMNED NAZIS AND ANYONE WHO BREAKS IT, EVEN ONCE, IS OUT, IS FIRED AND CANNOT RETURN. PERIOD. I DON'T CARE WHO THEY ARE; NOTHING LESS THAN 100% COMPLIANCE IS ACCEPTABLE. RIGHT NOW.

NO, GLOVES DO NOT CHANGE THIS. NOR DO MASKS.

DOCTORS, NURSES, ORDERLIES AND OTHER WORKERS ARE TRANSPORTING THE VIRUS OUT OF THE HOSPITALS AND ONTO SURFACES AND PERSONS IN THE GENERAL POPULATION.

THEY ARE THE VECTOR. THEY HAVE TO BE BECAUSE WE'VE SHUT DOWN VIRTUALLY EVERY OTHER POTENTIAL SOCIAL SOURCE OF CONTACT AND TRANSMISSION AND YET ALL WE GOT OUT OF IT IS AN 0.5 CHANGE IN R0.

IT CAN'T BE MOSQUITOES OR OTHER INSECTS, NOR OTHER VERMIN BECAUSE THE DENSITY OF THOSE FACTORS VARIES FROM PLACE TO PLACE AND YET NYC .VS. THE REST OF THE COUNTRY ONLY HAS A 0.1-0.2 DIFFERENCE IN MEASURED R0.

IT'S PEOPLE, AND THE ONLY PEOPLE WHO ARE INTERACTING WITH THE REST OF THE POPULATION RIGHT NOW THROUGH THEIR CONTACT WITH THE SURFACES WE ALL HAVE CONTACT WITH AND WHO ARE WHERE THE VIRUS IS CONCENTRATED ARE THOSE WHO WORK IN THE HOSPITALS.

AND BY THE WAY, THIS ALSO PROVES IT'S NOT PRIMARILY BEING TRANSMITTED IN VAPOR AND AEROSOLS FROM YOUR MOUTH. IF IT WAS THEN "SOCIAL DISTANCING" WOULD HAVE SLASHED R0 BY WELL MORE THAN HALF.

IT DIDN'T.

THE VIRUS IS, TO A LARGE DEGREE, BEING SHED AND TRANSFERRED OUT YOUR ASS.
 

Anderson

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i believe we got duped and lied to about about this virus.....

We believed the chinese.....
most of these countries are lieing about their cases...china, iran and others.
They are afraid of losing control of the government.
They kicked out our reporters.
A billionaire in china just disapeared for speaking out against the government.

We have the best medical facilities in the world and it doubles almost every 2-3 days.......

From what I am reading china and iran has had MILLIONS of virus cases
and 100s of thousands have died.

Read up on it... multiple articles support this.
 
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mrotto

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all countries have reported a DECREASE in the number of new cases.

Is this even reported?

NO
 

Ed Cruz

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i believe we got duped and lied to about about this virus.....

We believed the chinese.....
most of these countries are lieing about their cases...china, iran and others.
They are afraid of losing control of the government.
They kicked out our reporters.
A billionaire in china just disapeared for speaking out against the government.

We have the best medical facilities in the world and it doubles almost every 2-3 days.......

From what I am reading china and iran has had MILLIONS of virus cases
and 100s of thousands have died.

Read up on it... multiple articles support this.
Dr. Fauci our countries pointman on this particular virus estimates that there could be 100-200 thousand U.S. deaths this year........ The CDC estimates 30-50 thousand from influenzas.
 

mrotto

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well it all depends on when they develop a vacine.

Lots of estimates, in fact if you listen, thats all we hear. Estimates which are basically guesses. Estimates which no one will hold them accountable for when this is all said and done.

lets stick to the facts
 

ACP

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It's all guessing at this point, plain and simple. We don't know the virus well enough and it could easily mutate and cause more damage.

The good news is we have the best in the world all over our country working around the clock for a vaccine. They already started administering it to people here in Seattle as a test. Still would be at least 18 months they said before its publicly available but anything is better than nothing.
 

ACP

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Copy pasting from some website really doesnt help an argument much...

I can google and find an argument for anything with pages of what looks like scientific data

How about an argument for the earth is flat, or maybe the sky isn't blue? There's plenty of websites that take an opposing view to literally any point.

There so much bad info circulating right now you just have to trust the majority of experts, it's the only logical thing to do.... they are not all in on a diabolical plot to crash the economy, don't forget that.
 
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IluvCleanForums

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All i know is if your still in peoples homes or place of business and they are positive for COVID-19 then most likely your positive. The carpet is not the problem so much as everything else. Door knobs, walls, tables, chairs, counters, ect.. Gloves do nothing for you unless your changing pairs after everything you touch. Ask anyone in the medical field how many gloves they go through in a day...150? 200? I sent all our employees home last Monday and i'm not putting them or our customers in danger till after this has passed. If 1 person comes up positive, can you imagine having to call all your other clients and telling them that they need to be tested?!? I know some of our competitors in our area are still doing in home services but say that "no one can be home" but that is a super high risk. This is just my opinion but i would try to ride it out, take govt. assistance if needed to pay your employees, yourself and your bills and lets all end this virus as quickly as possible by taking proper precautions. I just don't want to gamble the health and possible lives of anyone, especially our employees or customers. I know not everyone will agree with me about this post but i would hope most will so we can end this nightmare sooner rather than later.
 
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ACP

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All i know is if your still in peoples homes or place of business and they are positive for COVID-19 then most likely your positive. The carpet is not the problem so much as everything else. Door knobs, walls, tables, chairs, counters, ect.. Gloves do nothing for you unless your changing pairs after everything you touch. Ask anyone in the medical field how many gloves they go through in a day...150? 200? I sent all our employees home last Monday and i'm not putting them or our customers in danger till after this has passed. If 1 person comes up positive, can you imagine having to call all your other clients and telling them that they need to be tested?!? I know some of our competitors in our area are still doing in home services but say that "no one can be home" but that is a super high risk. This is just my opinion but i would try to ride it out, take govt. assistance if needed to pay your employees, yourself and your bills and lets all end this virus as quickly as possible by taking proper precautions. I just don't want to gamble the health and possible lives of anyone, especially our employees or customers. I know not everyone will agree with me about this post but i would hope most will so we can end this nightmare sooner rather than later.
Exactly. You can be positive for weeks without symptoms or never really showing symptoms ever.

Super selfish to just walk around and go into people's homes who could have family that are high risk, you could literally kill them or cause them to have to spend a week in an ICU bed on a ventilator.

If your in a rural area then the situation is different, use your own discretion.

In larger cities that are experiencing a major outbreak like my area, your an idiot if your going out right now for anything other than what is essential.
 
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Fedri

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@rob allen

This virus is not being spread the way we're told.

Social distancing is close to worthless.

NY's data makes this quite clear. So does Florida's.


Both slammed the door; SE Florida and NYC.

The bend should be evident in one viral generation time. The new case rate should collapse in two viral generation times. If Community Transmission via bars, restaurants and "social interaction" was more than 2/3rds of the total the effective R0 would go under 1.0 and community transmission would collapse. If it was half then R0 would be 1.5 and we'd have transmission approximately equal to a bad seasonal flu.

IF you actually bent the curve.

These measures did not bend it to any material degree. Enough time has passed to know this is true; at most they have lengthened a "turn time" by one day (in other words, R3.0 to R2.5.) That's effectively nothing!

Why not?

It's being spread in the medical environment -- specifically, in the hospitals -- not, in the main, on the beach or in the bar.

When Singapore and South Korea figured out that if as a medical provider you wash your damn hands before and after, without exception, every potential contact with an infected person or surface even if you didn't have a mask on for 30 minutes during casual conversations with others (e.g. neither of you is hacking) transmission to and between their medical providers stopped.

Note -- even if you didn't have a mask on and were not social distancing in the work environment, which of course is impossible if you're working with others in a hospital, you didn't get infected.

And guess what immediately happened after that? Their national case rate stabilized and fell.

The hypothesis that fits the facts is that a material part of transmission is actually happening in the hospital with the medical providers spreading it through the community both directly and indirectly.

Remember that all disease R0 is a composite of all the elements of transmission. If any material part of transmission is happening in hospitals and other medical settings stopping that will stop or greatly attenuate community transmission. Every medical provider goes home and interacts with the public.

Then the hospital fills up and guess what -- they call in more doctors, nurses, orderlies and other people. In fact they've done exactly that; in hard-hit places they're getting volunteers. Excellent, they need the workers, except every one of those new workers in the place is also a brand new vector to the rest of the community too unless they wash their damn hands before and after every contact with any item or person as well.

What's worse is that the data is that if you wind up on a vent you die nearly all the time. They had a doc on Tucker Carlson last night confirming that we are not doing materially better than Wuhan in this regard.

View attachment 90405

We're wrong about how this thing is spreading and we're wrong about the silent attack rate. The step functions in the data here in the United States cannot be explained by ordinary community transmission but they are completely explained if the transmission is happening not among ordinary casual contact -- that is, not "social distancing", but rather through the medical system itself. That explains the step functions that are seen in places like Florida since it takes several days before you seek medical attention after infection and it also explains why NY, despite locking down the city and more than one viral generation time passing -- in fact two -- has seen no material decrease at all in their transmission rate.

In addition it further is supported by the fact that what we've seen here, in Italy, in Wuhan -- indeed everywhere is not an exponential curve. It's a step-function flat acceleration graph. Broad community transmission doesn't happen this way (you instead get a straight and continual exponential expansion until you start to obtain suppression via herd immunity) but if the spread happens as each "generation" gets driven to hospitals for testing and medical attention and the spread is largely happening there what we see here and in other nations in the case rate data is exactly the function you produce in terms of exposure rates.

In other words there should be no straight-line sections in the case rate graphs -- but there are.

Fix the protocols in the hospitals right damn now. PPE is not the answer if your hands, gloved or not, become contaminated and not immediately washed off. Hand-washing at an obsessive level -- before and after each patient interaction and before and after each contact with a piece of equipment that might be contaminated is. In other words the monster vector (remember, R0 is a composite, not a single number) which I've hypothesized since this started is not oral droplets -- it's fecal.

This also correlates exactly with the explosive spread in nursing homes where many residents are incontinent.


Folks, by definition medical facilities concentrate sick people into small spaces. If what's wrong with them is not infectious this doesn't matter. But if it is you had better not transmit anything between them or between you and them or you instantly become one of the, if not the only vector that matters.

Then as the place fills up you have more people working and thus more vectors into the rest of the community. Even if you have gotten the virus as a nurse or doctor and recovered and thus are immune if you have it on your hands and go down the escalator to the subway you can still contaminate the railing and the grab-rail in the car unless you wash your damn hands before and after any contact with any thing or person!

The presence of step functions and apparent linear-fit line segments in what should be a clean parabolic curve says this is exactly what has happened.


That in turn explains why the lockdowns are not doing a damn thing -- except destroying the economy, that we must do everything in our power to keep people out of the hospital in the first place and that, in turn, means using even potentially-valid prophylaxis and promising (but not yet proved) treatments early in the course of the disease so as to keep people out of the damned hospital in the first place while fixing the protocols in the hospitals so they stop transmitting the bug.

Don't tell me about all the doctors and nurses doing this already. That's a lie. I've been in plenty of hospitals (and worse, in nursing homes) in my years and in exactly zero instances have I seen any evidence that before and after each contact, with zero exceptions, those hands go under a stream of water with soap.

And reopen the damned economy.

Now.
I have been to doctor check ups and my doctor would wash his hands in 2 seconds lol, you are right they don't wash their hands properly or they don't wash their hands at all.
 

Fedri

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@rob allen

This virus is not being spread the way we're told.

Social distancing is close to worthless.

NY's data makes this quite clear. So does Florida's.


Both slammed the door; SE Florida and NYC.

The bend should be evident in one viral generation time. The new case rate should collapse in two viral generation times. If Community Transmission via bars, restaurants and "social interaction" was more than 2/3rds of the total the effective R0 would go under 1.0 and community transmission would collapse. If it was half then R0 would be 1.5 and we'd have transmission approximately equal to a bad seasonal flu.

IF you actually bent the curve.

These measures did not bend it to any material degree. Enough time has passed to know this is true; at most they have lengthened a "turn time" by one day (in other words, R3.0 to R2.5.) That's effectively nothing!

Why not?

It's being spread in the medical environment -- specifically, in the hospitals -- not, in the main, on the beach or in the bar.

When Singapore and South Korea figured out that if as a medical provider you wash your damn hands before and after, without exception, every potential contact with an infected person or surface even if you didn't have a mask on for 30 minutes during casual conversations with others (e.g. neither of you is hacking) transmission to and between their medical providers stopped.

Note -- even if you didn't have a mask on and were not social distancing in the work environment, which of course is impossible if you're working with others in a hospital, you didn't get infected.

And guess what immediately happened after that? Their national case rate stabilized and fell.

The hypothesis that fits the facts is that a material part of transmission is actually happening in the hospital with the medical providers spreading it through the community both directly and indirectly.

Remember that all disease R0 is a composite of all the elements of transmission. If any material part of transmission is happening in hospitals and other medical settings stopping that will stop or greatly attenuate community transmission. Every medical provider goes home and interacts with the public.

Then the hospital fills up and guess what -- they call in more doctors, nurses, orderlies and other people. In fact they've done exactly that; in hard-hit places they're getting volunteers. Excellent, they need the workers, except every one of those new workers in the place is also a brand new vector to the rest of the community too unless they wash their damn hands before and after every contact with any item or person as well.

What's worse is that the data is that if you wind up on a vent you die nearly all the time. They had a doc on Tucker Carlson last night confirming that we are not doing materially better than Wuhan in this regard.

View attachment 90405

We're wrong about how this thing is spreading and we're wrong about the silent attack rate. The step functions in the data here in the United States cannot be explained by ordinary community transmission but they are completely explained if the transmission is happening not among ordinary casual contact -- that is, not "social distancing", but rather through the medical system itself. That explains the step functions that are seen in places like Florida since it takes several days before you seek medical attention after infection and it also explains why NY, despite locking down the city and more than one viral generation time passing -- in fact two -- has seen no material decrease at all in their transmission rate.

In addition it further is supported by the fact that what we've seen here, in Italy, in Wuhan -- indeed everywhere is not an exponential curve. It's a step-function flat acceleration graph. Broad community transmission doesn't happen this way (you instead get a straight and continual exponential expansion until you start to obtain suppression via herd immunity) but if the spread happens as each "generation" gets driven to hospitals for testing and medical attention and the spread is largely happening there what we see here and in other nations in the case rate data is exactly the function you produce in terms of exposure rates.

In other words there should be no straight-line sections in the case rate graphs -- but there are.

Fix the protocols in the hospitals right damn now. PPE is not the answer if your hands, gloved or not, become contaminated and not immediately washed off. Hand-washing at an obsessive level -- before and after each patient interaction and before and after each contact with a piece of equipment that might be contaminated is. In other words the monster vector (remember, R0 is a composite, not a single number) which I've hypothesized since this started is not oral droplets -- it's fecal.

This also correlates exactly with the explosive spread in nursing homes where many residents are incontinent.


Folks, by definition medical facilities concentrate sick people into small spaces. If what's wrong with them is not infectious this doesn't matter. But if it is you had better not transmit anything between them or between you and them or you instantly become one of the, if not the only vector that matters.

Then as the place fills up you have more people working and thus more vectors into the rest of the community. Even if you have gotten the virus as a nurse or doctor and recovered and thus are immune if you have it on your hands and go down the escalator to the subway you can still contaminate the railing and the grab-rail in the car unless you wash your damn hands before and after any contact with any thing or person!

The presence of step functions and apparent linear-fit line segments in what should be a clean parabolic curve says this is exactly what has happened.


That in turn explains why the lockdowns are not doing a damn thing -- except destroying the economy, that we must do everything in our power to keep people out of the hospital in the first place and that, in turn, means using even potentially-valid prophylaxis and promising (but not yet proved) treatments early in the course of the disease so as to keep people out of the damned hospital in the first place while fixing the protocols in the hospitals so they stop transmitting the bug.

Don't tell me about all the doctors and nurses doing this already. That's a lie. I've been in plenty of hospitals (and worse, in nursing homes) in my years and in exactly zero instances have I seen any evidence that before and after each contact, with zero exceptions, those hands go under a stream of water with soap.

And reopen the damned economy.

Now.
You are absolutely right, hospitals are full of ill people of course the illness will spread from hospitals if the nurses and doctors don't wash their hands duhhhhh
 

Dizzle Dazzle

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Only non essential businesses closed today in Ontario and I am an essential business, I will be careful not to carry this virus home. I am hoping from God this will clear away and everyone go back to life again and happy.
which part of ontario are you from?
 

ACP

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Here is a really good interview guys from a Dr at Cornell in NYC who is spending all day every day seeing COVID patients.

NYC is pretty much the worst location in the world right now and this is a from a pulmonary specialist at one of the largest hospitals there.

He gives some really good solid info about everything they have learned at Cornell about COVID. It was good to hear him say first hand that it's very hard to get infected simply from breathing air near another infected person.

 

Fedri

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Here is a really good interview guys from a Dr at Cornell in NYC who is spending all day every day seeing COVID patients.

NYC is pretty much the worst location in the world right now and this is a from a pulmonary specialist at one of the largest hospitals there.

He gives some really good solid info about everything they have learned at Cornell about COVID. It was good to hear him say first hand that it's very hard to get infected simply from breathing air near another infected person.

We already know that you can't get this at all from the air, it is only from contact.
 

Fedri

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Wash your hands each time you come home, disinfect car steering wheels, wallet, keys. Wash hands again if you have touched money, avoid touching hands to your face, that is it. This is already a practice for us in our house hold when the flu season starts.

However you can get the flu from the air, this means flu is more contagious then covid19, 500 million each year is not a small number.
 
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OneBlueSummer

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The rfid chip will be the mark of the beast in the right hand or forehead. It will happen after the first tribulation so I'll be long gone.
This is 911 2.0 + the 2008 crash all in one. I still think it will take at least 2 years for it to really get bad because sheeple are gonna keep clutching on the news teets. And go back to life as normal after this
and so it will take most a long time to see and feel what the smart guys have been planning for since 2008.
20$ says 95% of all antibiotics wipe this thing. It's impossible to say with these pre existing condition cases. But of course no matter how or why one dies you know they are just gonna say, welphad to be the corona virus.
 
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